How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Estoril, at 35.0%. The other outcomes represent 65.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35% · Draw: 35% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estoril 1744; Arouca 1828. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Monday, Sep 7 2026
· 19:15
Estoril
Elo 1744
0
-
0
Arouca
Elo 1828
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-84
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Estoril1744
Arouca1828
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Estoril
0Draws
2Arouca
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
35% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
@ 2.25
Draw
35%
@ 3.36
Away
30%
@ 3.09
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.34
No
43%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.62
No
30%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
@ 2.80
Draw
36%
@ 2.15
Away
31%
@ 3.62
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
@ 1.37
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
82%
@ 1.25
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.