How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardiff, at 47.3%. The other outcomes represent 52.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.3% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 29.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cardiff 1890; Stoke City 1690. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Tuesday, Sep 8 2026
· 18:45
Cardiff
Elo 1890
1
-
1
Stoke City
Elo 1690
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+200
Elo rating comparison
Cardiff1890
Stoke City1690
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cardiff
—Draws
—Stoke City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
@ 2.14
Draw
23%
@ 3.66
Away
30%
@ 3.07
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.50
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.35
No
19%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 2.61
Draw
35%
@ 2.37
Away
17%
@ 3.52
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.25
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.15
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
@ 1.58
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.