How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Southampton, at 45.5%. The other outcomes represent 54.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.5% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 24.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Southampton 1945; Swansea 1797. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Tuesday, Sep 8 2026
· 18:45
Southampton
Elo 1945
3
-
1
Swansea
Elo 1797
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+149
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Southampton1945
Swansea1797
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Southampton
0Draws
0Swansea
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
@ 1.85
Draw
30%
@ 3.65
Away
24%
@ 3.89
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.65
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.24
No
24%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
@ 2.39
Draw
33%
@ 2.28
Away
24%
@ 4.32
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.32
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.22
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.74
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.