How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Borussia Dortmund, at 54.5%. The other outcomes represent 45.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.5% · Draw: 21.8% · Away win: 23.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Borussia Dortmund 2180; Villarreal 2060. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, Sep 8 2026
· 19:00
Borussia Dortmund
Elo 2180
3
-
2
Villarreal
Elo 2060
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+120
Elo rating comparison
Borussia Dortmund2180
Villarreal2060
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Borussia Dortmund
—Draws
—Villarreal
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
@ 1.76
Draw
22%
@ 4.04
Away
24%
@ 4.14
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.50
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.22
No
15%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
WRONG
Home
52%
@ 2.24
Draw
33%
@ 2.44
Away
15%
@ 4.19
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
@ 1.24
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
@ 1.14
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.50
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.