How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Manchester City, at 52.0%. The other outcomes represent 48.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 24.8% · Draw: 23.2% · Away win: 52%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Porto 2155; Manchester City 2317. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, Sep 8 2026
· 19:00
FC Porto
Elo 2155
0
-
2
Manchester City
Elo 2317
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-162
Elo rating comparison
FC Porto2155
Manchester City2317
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—FC Porto
—Draws
—Manchester City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
25%
@ 4.40
Draw
23%
@ 3.94
Away
52%
@ 1.74
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.63
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
@ 2.09
No
32%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.20
No
44%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 4.42
Draw
44%
@ 2.34
Away
27%
@ 2.27
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
@ 1.30
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.19
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.66
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.