How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Norwich, at 47.3%. The other outcomes represent 52.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.3% · Draw: 25.7% · Away win: 26.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Norwich 1850; Birmingham 1859. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Wednesday, Sep 9 2026
· 18:45
Norwich
Elo 1850
2
-
1
Birmingham
Elo 1859
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-9
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Norwich1850
Birmingham1859
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Norwich
0Draws
2Birmingham
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
@ 2.07
Draw
26%
@ 3.40
Away
27%
@ 3.36
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
42%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.