How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Marseille, at 40.3%. The other outcomes represent 59.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.5% · Draw: 22.2% · Away win: 40.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rennes 1941; Marseille 2021. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Friday, Sep 11 2026
· 18:45
Rennes
Elo 1941
1
-
0
Marseille
Elo 2021
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-80
H2H (5)
0H
0D
5A
Elo rating comparison
Rennes1941
Marseille2021
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Rennes
0Draws
5Marseille
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.33
Draw
22%
@ 3.77
Away
40%
@ 2.73
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.47
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.44
No
35%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
@ 1.59
No
38%
Half-Time Result
35% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
@ 2.81
Draw
34%
@ 2.38
Away
31%
@ 3.14
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
@ 1.26
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
83%
@ 1.15
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.53
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.