How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Toulouse, at 38.9%. The other outcomes represent 61.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.6% · Draw: 29.5% · Away win: 38.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lorient 1943; Toulouse 1901. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 18:45
Lorient
Elo 1943
2
-
2
Toulouse
Elo 1901
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+42
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Lorient1943
Toulouse1901
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Lorient
0Draws
2Toulouse
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 2.60
Draw
29%
@ 3.23
Away
39%
@ 2.74
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.75
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.44
No
41%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.49
No
37%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 3.19
Draw
43%
@ 2.08
Away
27%
@ 3.31
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.42
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.32
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.