How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guarabira, at 61.0%. The other outcomes represent 39.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61% · Draw: 23.3% · Away win: 15.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Guarabira 1546; Spartax 1413. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Paraibano 2 · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 22:30
Guarabira
Elo 1546
vs
Spartax
Elo 1413
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+133
Elo rating comparison
Guarabira1546
Spartax1413
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Guarabira
—Draws
—Spartax
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
Home
61%
Draw
23%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
Home
47%
Draw
36%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.