How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cruzeiro PB, at 36.5%. The other outcomes represent 63.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.1% · Draw: 32.4% · Away win: 36.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Spartax 1422; Cruzeiro PB 1517. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Paraibano 2 · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 18:00
Spartax
Elo 1422
1
-
2
Cruzeiro PB
Elo 1517
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-95
Elo rating comparison
Spartax1422
Cruzeiro PB1517
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Spartax
—Draws
—Cruzeiro PB
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
Draw
32%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
41%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.