How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is PSV Eindhoven, at 65.7%. The other outcomes represent 34.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.7% · Draw: 17.9% · Away win: 16.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: PSV Eindhoven 2110; Shakhtar Donetsk 2068. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League · Thursday, Sep 10 2026
· 16:45
PSV Eindhoven
Elo 2110
1
-
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Elo 2068
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+43
Elo rating comparison
PSV Eindhoven2110
Shakhtar Donetsk2068
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—PSV Eindhoven
—Draws
—Shakhtar Donetsk
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
WRONG
Home
66%
@ 1.50
Draw
18%
@ 4.75
Away
16%
@ 5.79
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.55
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
@ 1.13
No
17%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
@ 1.91
Draw
33%
@ 2.63
Away
18%
@ 5.29
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.23
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 2.10
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.12
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
@ 1.43
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.