How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sevilla, at 35.9%. The other outcomes represent 64.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.9% · Draw: 33.3% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sevilla 1923; Valencia 1928. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Friday, Sep 11 2026
· 19:00
Sevilla
Elo 1923
1
-
0
Valencia
Elo 1928
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
-5
H2H (3)
0H
1D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sevilla1923
Valencia1928
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sevilla
1Draws
2Valencia
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
@ 2.05
Draw
33%
@ 3.26
Away
31%
@ 3.96
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.26
No
40%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.77
No
37%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 2.67
Draw
45%
@ 2.03
Away
25%
@ 4.49
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
@ 1.48
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
@ 1.41
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.