How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is AC Milan, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.9% · Draw: 32.1% · Away win: 40%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lazio 2011; AC Milan 2089. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 16:00
Lazio
Elo 2011
2
-
2
AC Milan
Elo 2089
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-78
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Lazio2011
AC Milan2089
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Lazio
0Draws
0AC Milan
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
@ 3.64
Draw
32%
@ 3.19
Away
40%
@ 2.15
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.70
No
29%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.27
No
34%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 4.19
Draw
44%
@ 2.03
Away
24%
@ 2.80
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.47
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.39
No
33%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.