How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Athletic Club, at 52.4%. The other outcomes represent 47.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.4% · Draw: 26.5% · Away win: 21.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Athletic Club 1952; Elche 1880. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 16:30
Athletic Club
Elo 1952
1
-
1
Elche
Elo 1880
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+72
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Athletic Club1952
Elche1880
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Athletic Club
0Draws
0Elche
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
WRONG
Home
52%
@ 1.44
Draw
27%
@ 4.70
Away
21%
@ 7.18
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.10
No
23%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
@ 1.88
Draw
38%
@ 2.46
Away
23%
@ 6.46
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.31
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.22
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.69
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.