How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Madrid, at 79.2%. The other outcomes represent 20.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 79.2% · Draw: 13.3% · Away win: 7.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Real Madrid 2268; Rayo Vallecano 1979. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 19:00
Real Madrid
Elo 2268
4
-
1
Rayo Vallecano
Elo 1979
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+289
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Real Madrid2268
Rayo Vallecano1979
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Real Madrid
0Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
79% conf.
CORRECT
Home
79%
@ 1.14
Draw
13%
@ 8.72
Away
7%
@ 17.48
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
5%
No
95%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.90
No
48%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.02
No
7%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
@ 1.43
Draw
30%
@ 3.39
Away
10%
@ 10.50
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.15
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.06
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.27
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.