How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardiff, at 38.6%. The other outcomes represent 61.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.8% · Draw: 28.6% · Away win: 38.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bolton 1833; Cardiff 1890. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 11:30
Bolton
Elo 1833
1
-
0
Cardiff
Elo 1890
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-57
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Bolton1833
Cardiff1890
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bolton
0Draws
2Cardiff
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
@ 2.52
Draw
29%
@ 3.58
Away
39%
@ 2.57
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.45
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.48
No
39%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
@ 1.49
No
34%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
@ 2.97
Draw
38%
@ 2.36
Away
34%
@ 2.98
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.26
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
@ 1.16
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.56
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.