How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Birmingham, at 42.2%. The other outcomes represent 57.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.3% · Draw: 29.6% · Away win: 42.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Derby 1761; Birmingham 1859. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 11:30
Derby
Elo 1761
1
-
2
Birmingham
Elo 1859
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-98
H2H (3)
2H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Derby1761
Birmingham1859
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Derby
1Draws
0Birmingham
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
@ 3.36
Draw
30%
@ 3.27
Away
42%
@ 2.16
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.77
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.67
No
48%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.30
No
23%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
@ 3.90
Draw
44%
@ 2.08
Away
29%
@ 2.77
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.41
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.31
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.