How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Middlesbrough, at 49.3%. The other outcomes represent 50.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.3% · Draw: 22.8% · Away win: 27.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Middlesbrough 1882; Norwich 1850. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 14:00
Middlesbrough
Elo 1882
4
-
3
Norwich
Elo 1850
FT
HT 3-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+32
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Middlesbrough1882
Norwich1850
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Middlesbrough
0Draws
0Norwich
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
@ 1.84
Draw
23%
@ 3.84
Away
28%
@ 3.84
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.53
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.24
No
24%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.92
No
47%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.33
Draw
39%
@ 2.39
Away
23%
@ 4.05
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.26
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.17
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.58
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.