How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Southampton, at 59.1%. The other outcomes represent 40.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.1% · Draw: 21.4% · Away win: 19.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Southampton 1945; Bristol City 1765. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 14:00
Southampton
Elo 1945
4
-
1
Bristol City
Elo 1765
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+180
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Southampton1945
Bristol City1765
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Southampton
2Draws
0Bristol City
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
@ 1.67
Draw
21%
@ 4.04
Away
19%
@ 4.57
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.59
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.18
No
26%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
@ 2.13
Draw
34%
@ 2.41
Away
19%
@ 4.58
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.26
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.17
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.59
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.