How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Watford, at 37.6%. The other outcomes represent 62.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.6% · Draw: 31.1% · Away win: 31.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Watford 1688; Stoke City 1690. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 14:00
Watford
Elo 1688
1
-
2
Stoke City
Elo 1690
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-2
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Watford1688
Stoke City1690
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Watford
0Draws
2Stoke City
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.33
Draw
31%
@ 3.33
Away
31%
@ 2.96
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
@ 1.68
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.37
No
26%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.57
No
40%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
@ 2.88
Draw
39%
@ 2.14
Away
26%
@ 3.48
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.37
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.28
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.90
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.