How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Porto, at 72.6%. The other outcomes represent 27.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 11.4% · Draw: 16% · Away win: 72.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Casa Pia 1683; FC Porto 2155. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 17:00
Casa Pia
Elo 1683
1
-
4
FC Porto
Elo 2155
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-472
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Casa Pia1683
FC Porto2155
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Casa Pia
0Draws
0FC Porto
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
11%
@ 13.04
Draw
16%
@ 6.32
Away
73%
@ 1.21
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.66
No
44%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance X2
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.04
No
7%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
12%
@ 10.30
Draw
37%
@ 2.69
Away
50%
@ 1.60
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.29
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.19
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
@ 1.66
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
96% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
4%
No
96%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.