How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chaves, at 39.4%. The other outcomes represent 60.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.4% · Draw: 29.9% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chaves 1647; Feirense 1604. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda Liga · Sunday, Sep 13 2026
· 13:00
Chaves
Elo 1647
1
-
0
Feirense
Elo 1604
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+42
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Chaves1647
Feirense1604
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Chaves
0Draws
2Feirense
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
@ 2.04
Draw
30%
@ 3.14
Away
31%
@ 3.47
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.26
No
29%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.68
No
39%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 2.71
Draw
45%
@ 2.02
Away
26%
@ 4.19
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.45
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
@ 1.36
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.