How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tondela, at 38.9%. The other outcomes represent 61.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30.9% · Draw: 30.3% · Away win: 38.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Portimonense 1593; Tondela 1666. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda Liga · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 10:00
Portimonense
Elo 1593
0
-
2
Tondela
Elo 1666
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-73
Elo rating comparison
Portimonense1593
Tondela1666
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Portimonense
—Draws
—Tondela
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
@ 2.92
Draw
30%
@ 3.17
Away
39%
@ 2.30
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.55
No
44%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.36
No
28%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
@ 3.56
Draw
44%
@ 2.05
Away
29%
@ 2.97
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.42
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.34
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.