How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Santa Clara, at 33.6%. The other outcomes represent 66.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.6% · Draw: 32.8% · Away win: 33.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Arouca 1828; Santa Clara 1860. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 13 2026
· 17:00
Arouca
Elo 1828
1
-
2
Santa Clara
Elo 1860
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-32
H2H (7)
0H
3D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Arouca1828
Santa Clara1860
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Arouca
3Draws
4Santa Clara
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
34% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
@ 2.60
Draw
33%
@ 3.04
Away
34%
@ 2.83
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
@ 1.40
No
38%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.46
No
31%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 3.26
Draw
43%
@ 1.97
Away
27%
@ 3.48
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.49
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.40
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.