How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting CP, at 54.9%. The other outcomes represent 45.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 19.5% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 54.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Famalicao 1875; Sporting CP 2209. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 13 2026
· 19:30
Famalicao
Elo 1875
1
-
1
Sporting CP
Elo 2209
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-334
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Famalicao1875
Sporting CP2209
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Famalicao
0Draws
1Sporting CP
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
@ 5.63
Draw
26%
@ 4.24
Away
55%
@ 1.54
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 2.20
No
49%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance X2
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
@ 1.13
No
11%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
17%
@ 5.44
Draw
45%
@ 2.34
Away
38%
@ 2.04
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
@ 1.32
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.23
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.77
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.