How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Moreirense, at 38.0%. The other outcomes represent 62.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38% · Draw: 32.1% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moreirense 1778; Maritimo 1735. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Monday, Sep 14 2026
· 19:15
Moreirense
Elo 1778
3
-
1
Maritimo
Elo 1735
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+43
Elo rating comparison
Moreirense1778
Maritimo1735
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Moreirense
—Draws
—Maritimo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
@ 2.55
Draw
32%
@ 3.13
Away
30%
@ 2.81
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.40
No
36%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.48
No
37%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
@ 3.18
Draw
47%
@ 2.01
Away
24%
@ 3.46
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.46
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.40
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.