How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is AC Milan, at 43.2%. The other outcomes represent 56.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.2% · Draw: 28.5% · Away win: 28.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: AC Milan 2089; Benfica 2193. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Europa League · Wednesday, Sep 16 2026
· 19:00
AC Milan
Elo 2089
0
-
2
Benfica
Elo 2193
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-104
Elo rating comparison
AC Milan2089
Benfica2193
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—AC Milan
—Draws
—Benfica
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.09
Draw
29%
@ 3.49
Away
28%
@ 3.30
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.59
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
@ 1.31
No
32%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.73
No
35%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 2.59
Draw
40%
@ 2.26
Away
30%
@ 3.68
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.32
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.21
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.71
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.