How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Defensor Sporting, at 55.4%. The other outcomes represent 44.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.4% · Draw: 28.3% · Away win: 16.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Defensor Sporting 1591; Plaza Colonia 1561. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Copa Uruguay · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 19:00
Defensor Sporting
Elo 1591
vs
Plaza Colonia
Elo 1561
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+30
Elo rating comparison
Defensor Sporting1591
Plaza Colonia1561
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Defensor Sporting
—Draws
—Plaza Colonia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
Home
55%
Draw
28%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
Home
36%
Draw
47%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.