How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Firpo, at 47.4%. The other outcomes represent 52.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.4% · Draw: 21.7% · Away win: 30.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Firpo 1750; Alianza 1640. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Thursday, Nov 5 2026
· 01:00
Firpo
Elo 1750
vs
Alianza
Elo 1640
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+110
H2H (6)
2H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Firpo1750
Alianza1640
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Firpo
4Draws
0Alianza
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
Home
47%
@ 1.79
Draw
22%
@ 3.37
Away
31%
@ 4.48
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
39%
Draw
40%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
Yes
67%
@ 1.41
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
Yes
84%
@ 1.33
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
@ 2.05
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.