How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardiff, at 46.1%. The other outcomes represent 53.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.1% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 28.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cardiff 1890; Charlton 1777. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 11:30
Cardiff
Elo 1890
3
-
1
Charlton
Elo 1777
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+113
Elo rating comparison
Cardiff1890
Charlton1777
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cardiff
—Draws
—Charlton
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
@ 1.80
Draw
25%
@ 3.81
Away
29%
@ 3.91
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.59
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.22
No
28%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.97
No
44%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
@ 2.30
Draw
38%
@ 2.35
Away
23%
@ 4.19
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.29
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.19
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.63
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.