How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is the draw, at 34.9%. The other outcomes represent 65.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.4% · Draw: 34.9% · Away win: 31.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Osasuna 1931; Rayo Vallecano 1984. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 12:00
Osasuna
Elo 1931
1
-
1
Rayo Vallecano
Elo 1984
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-53
Elo rating comparison
Osasuna1931
Rayo Vallecano1984
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Osasuna
—Draws
—Rayo Vallecano
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
35% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
@ 2.41
Draw
35%
@ 3.24
Away
32%
@ 3.03
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.77
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.37
No
31%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.58
No
37%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 2.97
Draw
41%
@ 2.08
Away
27%
@ 3.62
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.41
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.33
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.