How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Burnley, at 49.7%. The other outcomes represent 50.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.7% · Draw: 27.5% · Away win: 22.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Burnley 1765; Derby 1761. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 14:00
Burnley
Elo 1765
1
-
1
Derby
Elo 1761
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+4
Elo rating comparison
Burnley1765
Derby1761
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Burnley
—Draws
—Derby
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
@ 1.80
Draw
28%
@ 3.59
Away
23%
@ 4.18
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
@ 1.73
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.20
No
32%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.96
No
42%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
@ 2.34
Draw
36%
@ 2.21
Away
28%
@ 4.56
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.36
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.26
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.