How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lincoln, at 36.4%. The other outcomes represent 63.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 27.8% · Away win: 35.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lincoln 1888; Swansea 1797. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 14:00
Lincoln
Elo 1888
1
-
2
Swansea
Elo 1797
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+92
Elo rating comparison
Lincoln1888
Swansea1797
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Lincoln
—Draws
—Swansea
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
@ 2.78
Draw
28%
@ 3.32
Away
36%
@ 2.42
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 1.70
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.51
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.41
No
42%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 3.36
Draw
43%
@ 2.13
Away
24%
@ 3.02
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.37
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.28
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.