How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Athletic Club, at 54.2%. The other outcomes represent 45.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.2% · Draw: 27.7% · Away win: 18%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Athletic Club 1952; Alaves 1941. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 14:15
Athletic Club
Elo 1952
0
-
0
Alaves
Elo 1941
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+11
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Athletic Club1952
Alaves1941
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Athletic Club
0Draws
0Alaves
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
@ 1.65
Draw
28%
@ 3.89
Away
18%
@ 5.26
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.88
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.16
No
33%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 2.24
No
41%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
@ 2.18
Draw
39%
@ 2.22
Away
24%
@ 5.32
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.38
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
@ 1.28
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
@ 1.92
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.