How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is União de Leiria, at 43.3%. The other outcomes represent 56.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.5% · Draw: 27.3% · Away win: 43.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: O Elvas 1590; União de Leiria 1711. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 17:00
O Elvas
Elo 1590
0
-
2
União de Leiria
Elo 1711
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-120
Elo rating comparison
O Elvas1590
União de Leiria1711
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—O Elvas
—Draws
—União de Leiria
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
Draw
27%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
45%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.