How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barcelona, at 68.9%. The other outcomes represent 31.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 12.7% · Draw: 18.5% · Away win: 68.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sevilla 1936; Barcelona 2307. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 19:00
Sevilla
Elo 1936
1
-
3
Barcelona
Elo 2307
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-371
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sevilla1936
Barcelona2307
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sevilla
0Draws
2Barcelona
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
CORRECT
Home
13%
@ 12.09
Draw
18%
@ 7.12
Away
69%
@ 1.20
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.64
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.04
No
10%
Half-Time Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
11%
@ 8.42
Draw
26%
@ 3.19
Away
63%
@ 1.51
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.15
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.06
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.27
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
94% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
6%
No
94%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.