How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting CP, at 83.7%. The other outcomes represent 16.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 83.7% · Draw: 10.6% · Away win: 5.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting CP 2203; Arouca 1816. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, Sep 19 2026
· 19:30
Sporting CP
Elo 2203
2
-
2
Arouca
Elo 1816
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+387
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sporting CP2203
Arouca1816
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Sporting CP
0Draws
0Arouca
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
84% conf.
WRONG
Home
84%
@ 1.18
Draw
11%
@ 6.71
Away
6%
@ 13.41
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.04
No
10%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
57%
@ 1.52
Draw
31%
@ 2.92
Away
12%
@ 9.32
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.20
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.09
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.35
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.