How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Norwich, at 59.5%. The other outcomes represent 40.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.5% · Draw: 19.5% · Away win: 21%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Norwich 1848; Bolton 1833. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–4. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 12:30
Norwich
Elo 1848
3
-
4
Bolton
Elo 1833
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+15
Elo rating comparison
Norwich1848
Bolton1833
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Norwich
—Draws
—Bolton
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
WRONG
Home
60%
@ 1.47
Draw
20%
@ 4.52
Away
21%
@ 5.68
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.62
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
@ 1.12
No
21%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
@ 1.94
Draw
39%
@ 2.52
Away
16%
@ 5.36
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.24
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.14
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.49
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.