How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fafe, at 73.9%. The other outcomes represent 26.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 73.9% · Draw: 17.4% · Away win: 8.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fafe 1694; Lajense 1461. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 09:00
Fafe
Elo 1694
4
-
0
Lajense
Elo 1461
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+232
Elo rating comparison
Fafe1694
Lajense1461
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Fafe
—Draws
—Lajense
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
CORRECT
Home
74%
Draw
17%
Away
9%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
92%
No
8%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
Draw
40%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.