How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Louletano, at 40.7%. The other outcomes represent 59.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.4% · Draw: 23.8% · Away win: 40.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Serpa 1545; Louletano 1697. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 14:00
FC Serpa
Elo 1545
1
-
2
Louletano
Elo 1697
AET
FT 90' 1-1
ET 1-2
HT 0-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-152
H2H (4)
0H
1D
3A
Elo rating comparison
FC Serpa1545
Louletano1697
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0FC Serpa
1Draws
3Louletano
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
24%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
40%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.