How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Madrid, at 46.2%. The other outcomes represent 53.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30.7% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 46.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Madrid 2176; Real Madrid 2271. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 14:15
Atletico Madrid
Elo 2176
2
-
1
Real Madrid
Elo 2271
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-95
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Madrid2176
Real Madrid2271
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Atletico Madrid
0Draws
3Real Madrid
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 3.48
Draw
23%
@ 3.78
Away
46%
@ 1.97
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.41
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.83
No
46%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.29
No
37%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 3.75
Draw
41%
@ 2.43
Away
30%
@ 2.39
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.23
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
@ 1.11
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.44
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.