How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Estrela, at 38.8%. The other outcomes represent 61.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.8% · Draw: 32.3% · Away win: 28.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estrela 1746; Academico Viseu 1753. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 14:30
Estrela
Elo 1746
0
-
2
Academico Viseu
Elo 1753
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-7
Elo rating comparison
Estrela1746
Academico Viseu1753
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Estrela
—Draws
—Academico Viseu
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
@ 2.17
Draw
32%
@ 3.21
Away
29%
@ 3.31
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
@ 1.81
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.30
No
29%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.66
No
39%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 2.75
Draw
48%
@ 2.06
Away
20%
@ 3.97
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.42
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.33
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.