How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vitória SC, at 58.7%. The other outcomes represent 41.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.7% · Draw: 19.9% · Away win: 21.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vitória SC 1885; Moreirense 1789. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 14:30
Vitória SC
Elo 1885
1
-
1
Moreirense
Elo 1789
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Elo Advantage
+96
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Vitória SC1885
Moreirense1789
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Vitória SC
0Draws
0Moreirense
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
59%
@ 1.52
Draw
20%
@ 3.98
Away
21%
@ 6.16
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.11
No
21%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.04
Draw
37%
@ 2.24
Away
19%
@ 6.00
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.37
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.29
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.94
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.