How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Estoril, at 52.5%. The other outcomes represent 47.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.5% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 19.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estoril 1743; Casa Pia 1683. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 17:00
Estoril
Elo 1743
1
-
2
Casa Pia
Elo 1683
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+60
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Estoril1743
Casa Pia1683
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Estoril
2Draws
0Casa Pia
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
53%
@ 1.73
Draw
28%
@ 3.65
Away
19%
@ 4.55
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.81
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
@ 1.18
No
24%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 2.07
No
50%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
@ 2.28
Draw
40%
@ 2.20
Away
22%
@ 4.81
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
@ 1.36
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.27
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.90
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.