How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Sociedad, at 44.0%. The other outcomes represent 56.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.3% · Draw: 28.7% · Away win: 44%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Valencia 1941; Real Sociedad 1947. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 19:00
Valencia
Elo 1941
2
-
3
Real Sociedad
Elo 1947
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-6
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Valencia1941
Real Sociedad1947
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Valencia
0Draws
0Real Sociedad
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
@ 2.69
Draw
29%
@ 3.35
Away
44%
@ 2.57
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.70
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
@ 1.50
No
41%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.45
No
31%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
@ 3.28
Draw
44%
@ 2.14
Away
31%
@ 3.12
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.39
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.29
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.93
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.