How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Porto, at 37.6%. The other outcomes represent 62.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.6% · Draw: 26.1% · Away win: 36.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Porto 2155; Benfica 2210. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #674 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 20 2026
· 19:30
FC Porto
Elo 2155
3
-
1
Benfica
Elo 2210
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-54
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
FC Porto2155
Benfica2210
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0FC Porto
2Draws
0Benfica
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
@ 2.66
Draw
26%
@ 3.29
Away
36%
@ 2.55
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.65
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.48
No
37%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
@ 1.44
No
33%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 3.18
Draw
45%
@ 2.15
Away
29%
@ 3.09
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.36
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.25
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.86
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.