How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Araks Ararat, at 41.0%. The other outcomes represent 59.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 22.5% · Away win: 41%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lernayin Artsakh 1378; Araks Ararat 1479. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
First League · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 11:30
Lernayin Artsakh
Elo 1378
1
-
2
Araks Ararat
Elo 1479
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-100
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Lernayin Artsakh1378
Araks Ararat1479
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Lernayin Artsakh
0Draws
2Araks Ararat
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
23%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
Draw
38%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.