How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is New York Red Bulls, at 39.6%. The other outcomes represent 60.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.6% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 35.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: New York Red Bulls 1565; St. Louis City 1725. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Major League Soccer · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 23:30
New York Red Bulls
Elo 1565
vs
St. Louis City
Elo 1725
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-159
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
New York Red Bulls1565
St. Louis City1725
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1New York Red Bulls
0Draws
0St. Louis City
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
@ 2.85
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Away
36%
@ 2.14
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
@ 1.39
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
@ 1.65
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
Yes
62%
@ 1.38
No
38%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
29%
@ 3.17
Draw
42%
@ 2.49
Away
28%
@ 2.58
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
Yes
75%
@ 1.21
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
@ 1.11
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
Yes
62%
@ 1.41
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
@ 2.05
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.