How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cariari Pococi, at 51.1%. The other outcomes represent 48.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 51.1% · Draw: 22.7% · Away win: 26.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cariari Pococi 1477; CS Uruguay 1414. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Ascenso · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 01:00
Cariari Pococi
Elo 1477
1
-
1
CS Uruguay
Elo 1414
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+63
H2H (9)
4H
2D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Cariari Pococi1477
CS Uruguay1414
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Cariari Pococi
2Draws
3CS Uruguay
9 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
23%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
34%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.