How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bermuda, at 46.6%. The other outcomes represent 53.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.6% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 46.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: St. Lucia 1346; Bermuda 1365. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
CONCACAF Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 00:00
St. Lucia
Elo 1346
5
-
2
Bermuda
Elo 1365
FT
HT 3-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
-19
Elo rating comparison
St. Lucia1346
Bermuda1365
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—St. Lucia
—Draws
—Bermuda
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
20%
Away
47%
Both Teams to Score
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
32%
Away
44%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.